TONY SMYTH
Tokyo-based Educator & Author
Author of
Fukushima and the Coming Tokyo Earthquake
and what it will mean for a fragile world economy
Tony Smyth has lived and worked in Tokyo since 1980. During nearly five decades in Japan, he has worked extensively with Japanese companies and executives, government officials, researchers, scientists and engineers. His professional background includes executive English, business communication and education. He has also spent many years examining Japan’s economy, energy, technology and its relationship with the wider world.
He is available to international media covering a major Tokyo earthquake and its consequences.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE?
The last major earthquake to devastate the region was the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923. Tokyo and Yokohama were then separate cities. Today they are part of a vast metropolitan area — one of the largest concentrations of population, political power and economic activity in the world.
The immediate news will be the earthquake itself: casualties, damage, fires and the emergency response. But the consequences of a disaster on this scale will extend far beyond the earthquake itself. Tokyo is an enormous and densely populated metropolitan area. A major earthquake will create problems involving fire, evacuation, transport, communications, essential services and the movement of people and resources. Millions of Tokyo residents depend on public transport rather than private cars. If railways are disrupted and roads are simultaneously needed by emergency services, moving people around the metropolitan area could become a major problem. Tokyo’s geography and infrastructure will also matter: large areas contain closely packed residential buildings and narrow roads, creating particular challenges for emergency services and evacuation.
Mr Smyth can provide context on these issues and help international audiences understand what is happening in Tokyo as the crisis develops.
TOKYO: THE CENTRE OF JAPAN
Tokyo is not simply Japan’s largest city. It is the country’s principal centre of political, bureaucratic, financial and corporate power. An extraordinary amount of Japan’s decision-making and economic activity is concentrated in the Tokyo metropolitan area. A major earthquake would therefore have consequences far beyond physical damage, directly affecting government, business and the functioning of the country.
How does Japan continue to function if its principal centre of power and economic activity is seriously disrupted — a metropolitan area inhabited by around 30% of the country’s population?
Mr Smyth can discuss the implications for government, business and everyday life, including evacuation, transport, essential supplies, the mobilisation of resources and the early stages of recovery.
JAPAN AND THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
Japan is deeply intertwined with the global economy. It depends heavily on international trade, including imports of essential energy and raw materials, while Japanese companies occupy important positions in global manufacturing, technology and supply chains. Japan also has enormous investments overseas.
A major disruption in Tokyo could therefore have consequences well beyond Japan — through disruption to manufacturing, the ability to import and export, international supply chains and potentially the movement of Japanese capital. He can examine what could happen if Japanese manufacturing is disrupted and the country’s ability to import and export is seriously affected, including the consequences for international supply chains and businesses overseas.
THE STORY DEVELOPS
The consequences of a major Tokyo earthquake will unfold over different time scales.
THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH
The first hours and days: casualties, fires, emergency response, evacuation, transport, communications, food, water and other essential needs.
THE FIRST TWO WEEKS
The emergency develops into a much larger logistical and economic problem. How does Japan mobilise resources? How does it support Tokyo? What happens when millions of people try to leave a seriously disrupted metropolitan area? Many of Tokyo’s residents have family connections elsewhere in Japan and will want to return to their home towns. If much of Tokyo’s water supply is disrupted, that pressure to leave will become even greater. Most people do not own a car, while the highways leading out of the metropolitan area are not designed for anything approaching a mass exodus. Rail services will face enormous pressure, with scenes of crowded stations and desperate people trying to board trains likely. What happens to businesses and industry when factories cannot operate and products or components cannot reach markets? What happens to supply chains? What assistance comes from elsewhere in Japan — and from overseas?
THE LONGER TERM
Reconstruction raises questions about financing, investment, Japanese capital, economic recovery and the international consequences of prolonged disruption.
Mr Smyth can follow these developments as they unfold, distinguishing between established facts, informed analysis and possible scenarios.
WHY CONTACT TONY SMYTH?
His perspective comes from nearly five decades of living and working in Tokyo. He has experienced the city not as a visitor or foreign correspondent passing through, but as someone who has built his professional and personal life there. His work has involved extensive contact with Japanese business, government, education and professional communities, while decades of living in Japan have given him an opportunity to observe its culture, institutions and society at close range.
This long-term experience gives him a perspective on how Tokyo and Japan may respond to a major disaster — and on the social, political and economic consequences that may follow.
He can help international audiences understand what is happening in Tokyo, how Japan is responding, what may happen next — and how the consequences could extend beyond Japan.
MEDIA AVAILABILITY
Available internationally for:
- Television and radio interviews
- Newspapers, magazines and online media
- Live and recorded interviews
- Background briefings
- Consultation with producers, editors and correspondents
Media engagements are non-exclusive.
MEDIA ENGAGEMENT
Standard media interviews
No fee
Available for standard interviews and media commentary, subject to availability.
Commissioned Expert Consultancy
From US$1,500
For organisations requiring a greater commitment of time and expertise. This may include ongoing research and monitoring, detailed background briefings, bespoke analysis, preparation for interviews, repeated appearances, consultation with producers or correspondents, and extended availability.
Fees are agreed according to the scope and duration of the assignment.
Engagements are non-exclusive.
THE BOOK
Fukushima and the Coming Tokyo Earthquake
and what it will mean for a fragile world economy
Published in 2017, the book examines the potential consequences of a major Tokyo earthquake and the wider implications for Japan and the international economy. It draws on his long experience of living and working in Japan and on Japanese sources that are often overlooked by international media.
Its subject has always extended beyond the earthquake itself: what happens to Japan afterwards, and what those consequences could mean for a fragile world economy.
Book website:
fukushimatokyoquake.com
Contact Me via the Contact Form
Telephone: 070-3253-9593