A Japanese government panel estimates that a powerful earthquake striking directly beneath Tokyo could kill up to 18,000 people and cause damage worth about 83 trillion yen, or about 533 billion dollars. The panel warned the disaster would be on a national-crisis scale and called for society-wide efforts to mitigate the impact.
The latest assessment examined 24 possible quake scenarios: under one scenario, in which a magnitude 7.3 quake strikes directly beneath the southern part of central Tokyo, a wide area including Tokyo and its neighboring prefectures of Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa is estimated to experience shaking of at least lower 6 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of zero to 7. Some areas could record the maximum intensity of 7.
The estimate says that in a worst-case scenario, with such a quake occurring on a windy winter evening, the death toll could rise to 18,000 and 400,000 buildings could be destroyed by shaking or burned down. The assessment adds that about 70 percent of the damage would be caused by fires.
The projected death toll and number of damaged buildings are each about 20 and 30 percent lower than in the previous estimate, reflecting progress in making homes more quake-resistant and reducing densely built-up areas. Still, the estimated damage would be devastating.